Japanese Demographics Part 7

They were at again in the newspaper this morning, cheerily painting a bleak-as-can-be picture of Japan's impending 'Apocalypse Soon'. Apparently the number crunchers and crystal-ball gazers in the civil service got together and took a shot at predicting the country's future population trends.

By 2060 they reckon there will be some 40 million fewer people eating rice and driving Toyotas. To put that in perspective, that's the disappearance of 800,000 people a year, every year, for the next 50 years. Whoommpp! and the entire population of Connaught is gone in a year (which, admittedly, might actually be a positive thing for Galway hurling). And gone again next year, and the next, and so on.

Not content with that bit of doom and gloom, they also predicted that by 2060, close on 40% of the surviving population will be over 65 years of age. Though they softened that by saying that the average life expectancy for males and females will be an all time high of respectively 84 and 90 years of age.

Now, as an Irishman with an average life span of 76 years, these figures don't overly concern me as I will be statistically dead by 2060, but Sanae and Cian will be finding life here "grim up north".

All the more reason then to move to Singapore where life is bountiful and balmy, 'demographics' is a trendy bar on Robertson Quay, and McDonalds are still hiring (I checked).

Muroran in 2060.

Singapore

The writer William Gibson memorably described Singapore as "Disneyland with the death penalty". Perfect then, for a family holiday; no crime and plenty for Cian to do.

Having tired of so-called 'holidays' in northern hemisphere winters (cf. Ireland 2010), we decided we wanted to go somewhere (a) warm; and (b) English-speaking.

That tends to limit your options in this part of the world. Hong Kong - close but not particularly warm; Hawaii - too ostentatious in these days of austerity (and the jet-lag is an absolute bastard); Australia and New Zealand are a little too far for a week long break); and the west coast of the United States is, well, part of the United States (though we did give some thought to the people's free republic of San Francisco).

So Singapore by default. Yet, it turned out to be a wonderfully relaxing holiday. Not invigorating, not stimulating, not mind-expanding; rather cosy, contained and cheerful - just what the three of us were after.

And the warmth. Ahh, that rich balmy, tropical air that suffuses the city. Even as I write this the memory of same is bringing a cold tear to my near-frozen eyes. Everyday was t-shirt and shorts weather and despite the New Year period having the highest monthly rainfall, we only had one prolonged afternoon shower on our first day and the rest of our stay was blessed with blue skies.

By contrast the Hokkaido Shimbun informed us this morning that Hokkaido is suffering through its coldest winter in a decade. We have had sub-zero temperatures for over a week now and 'de paper' told us the freezing spell will continue until the middle of February at least.

Apparently McDonalds in Singapore are hiring.

I could do that.

Pride doesn't keep you warm...

The Center Test

The ｾﾝﾀｰ試験 (Center Test), is the annual university entrance exam held simultaneously across Japan every January. It is akin to the Leaving Certificate back home, A Levels in the UK, SATs in the US, and erm, 'Gladiators' in Russia.

In comparison to the bruising two week, heavyweight ordeal of the Leaving Certificate, the Center Tests are a lean, mean two day affair with the longest exams only running to 80 minutes.

And they are all multi-choice. So, unlike say the English 1 paper back home where you spend three hours furiously scribbling down every random thought you have ever had on the bog-soaked poetry of Patrick Kavanagh before your entire arm cramps into a sort of twisted claw reminiscent of Dr. Strangelove, the Japanese tests are genteel exercises in mark filling.

Choose (a), (b), (c) or (d) and fill in the corresponding circle on the answer sheet.

Duration aside, it is this emphasis on discrete item learning as opposed to discursive answers on how you apply that knowledge, which is probably the greatest difference between here and home. I may not particularly care for Kavanagh's evocation of mildewed life amidst the misty drumlins of county Monaghan, but at least in the Leaving Certificate I may well be asked to justify that stance.

The Center Test, by contrast, will have a long piece on say, the Tale of the Genji and then present you with a question and four possible answers. The implication being that there is a single right answer to whatever is asked. And with just four answers provided, it is only through statistical probability that students' knowledge of the Genji can be imputed.

(As an aside, that reads kind of cool, doesn't it - 'knowledge of the Genji'. "According to the Center Test, wise are you in the way of the Genji. But, impetuous too, young Kenobi").

This is a very reductive way of both testing and ascribing value to knowledge. And it also leads to some peculiar forms of assessment. In the English exam for instance, in the first question, four words are given with the same letter(s) underlined in each. Students have to choose the word which has a different pronunciation for the underlined letter sound as compared to the other three words.

Now remember theyare in an exam situation so students can't actually vocalize the sounds. Instead they have to (a) either sound it out in their minds; (b) depend on their memory of the phonetic spelling of the words; or (c) curse this whackshit question and take a blind guess at the inane answer.

(For those of you who would like to take a shot at Japanese academic glory, the entire English paper is available here).

Oh my God, I hear you cry, but what sort of English education are those poor students getting in high school. To which the honest answer would have to be: "one that can be discrete-item tested on a nationwide university entrance exam".

The fact that pronunciation of the 'u' sound in 'amuse', 'cute', 'future' and 'rude' (to continue with the above example) depends on the speaker's identity, gender, social standing, the context in which the utterance is made, and, oh I don't know, the time of day perhaps, renders the question communicatively invalid.

It is, however, statistically valid and that is all that counts.

(The answer by the way is 'rude').

A belated happy new year

It has been, I will admit, a while. At this stage I am not too sure who is still reading this (but according to Google's ever helpful 'Stats' function, I am still resplendently popular in Thailand, Russia and Canada. God/Buddha bless you one and all).

We were away over the holiday period, though admittedly only for 10 days, so that still leaves a further three weeks to account for. But in those three weeks, I have been composing furiously on behalf of you, my dear readers in Bangkok, Moscow and Moosebay, and over the next couple of days I hope to brighten all our lives with my blogs.

If I'm not too busy shoveling snow.

So my new years resolutions for 2012 are:

(a) break through the magical 100 blog mark for the year. I came close last year but topped out at 89 due to a sudden outbreak of tropical heat induced lethargy just after Christmas (but more of that anon).

(b) And, you know, the old world peace gig; saving some whales should they happen to cruise into Muroran harbour; getting the Chinese to cut the Dalai Lama some slack; and finding an immediate cure for advanced male pattern baldness.

Yes, a tad conventional I know, but that's the early middle-aged latent Republican in me beginning to emerge.