It is not often you can conclusively point the finger at one man and blame him for the woes of a nation. Yet, here in Japan, we have a contender: step forward and take a bow, Shintaro Ishihara.
Up until last Wednesday he was the governor of Tokyo, quite possibly the most important political position after the prime ministership. However, after a run of 13 years he quit in order to found a new political party and run for the Diet, the Japanese parliament. Given that he is somewhere to the right of Texas in his extreme, conservative nationalism, it is highly unlikely he will become prime minister come the next election. He could though, become a 'shadow shogun', a behind the scenes kingmaker, who may well decide who does get the top job. He is also 80 so his ambitions are necessarily constrained and may explain his abrupt decision last week; it is, essentially, now or never.
My preference would be for the latter, but then again, I don't get to vote.
Besides having been governor, Ishihara is also a best selling author, film director, former journalist who covered the Vietnam War, an unapologetic racist, and, it would seem, politically (if not completely) senile. Earlier this year he announced that the Tokyo metropolitan government, at his behest, would buy the Senkaku Islands (the Daioyu Islands to the Chinese, Tioayutai Islands to the Taiwanese, or "those feckin rocks" to Cian). The islands form a rough apex between China, Taiwan and the Okinawa islands in southern Japan.
They are actually 1,900 kilometres from Tokyo, but to Ishihara that's the sort of bureaucratic nitpicking that have laid this once great nation so low.
After the second world war the islands were administered by the US, but following the reversion of Okinawa to Japanese sovereignty in 1972, the islands were returned to their private owners. At the time China contested this but weren't willing to force the issue as, well, this was 1972, Mao was in charge and the country was walking that fine line between state led second world power, and one rice crop failure away from third world famine.
Anyway, Ishihara is as anti-Sino as they come, (and lately they have been coming in droves), and his bid to buy the islands was widely seen as deliberate provocation to the powers that be in Beijing. Thus, the Japanese government, fearful of what he might do should the sale go through (probably borrow some neon signs from Shinjuku and erect a 100 meter display saying "Eat this, Mao spawn!"), hastily stepped in and used ¥2.05 billion of my, my wife's and the rest of the Japanese taxpayer's money to buy the islands.
And this effectively nationalized them.
And this in turn sent the Chinese ballistic. Japanese stores and factories were ransacked and burnt down, workers at Japanese factories rioted, Japanese made cars were thrashed, and thousands tried to storm the Japanese embassy in Beijing. Throughout all this the Chinese authorities stood idly by, but rather less idly encouraged an armada of fishing boats to steam for the islands as well as dispatching numerous coast guard ships to enforce their territorial claim on the Senkakus. Sorry, Daioyus.
The authorities also took less overt but equally effective measures. Japanese imports were subject to strict customs checks; minor mistakes on the paperwork resulted in either cargo ships of good being sent back across the Japan Sea. Sorry, East China Sea.
Bowing to the inevitable various Chinese airlines terminated air routes to regional airports all across Japan while Chinese tourists cancelled their holidays en masse. All in all it was a concerted and pointed display of economic muscle, a rumbling reminder of who the big boy is in Asia now.
And it was all too painfully effective.
Exports to China fell by 14% in the month of September, and as the dispute continues with no end in sight, Cian reckons it will knock 0.8% of Japanese GDP for this year. For individual companies, the damage has been even more severe. Toyota has just reported a 40% drop in Chinese car sales while Sharp and Panasonic have announced billion dollar losses, with Sharp teetering on the verge of bankruptcy. Up here in Hokkaido we are not immune either. Tourism and agriculture, the two mainstays of the island economy have been particularly hard hit. According to 'De Paper', reservations by Chinese tourists are down 70%, and food exports are down by 40%.
And all because of the nationalistic hubris of a vain glorious old man. Yet Ishihara is not even a bit apologetic. Rather he believes Japan needs to be 'strong again' and berates the younger generation of politicians for not doing their fair share of geo-political weight training. And yes, that is a fairly stretched simile.
Anyway, for a country with the myriad of problems Japan faces, the last thing it needs is somebody like Ishihara gunning for glory, but this, unfortunately, fearfully even, is what we may well end up with.
