No country for young men (or women)

As with most other countries, the period over the new year saw the Japanese newspapers publish a number of reviews of the previous year (and decade), along with previews for the coming year(s). Whilst not a comprehensive account of the state of the nation, they do offer an interesting snapshot of where Japan is and seems to be headed. So, in no particular order, we have:

Suicides (forgive me, a little grim I know, but a seemingly intractable part of society here in the same way drink-driving is back home): 2009 was the 12th consecutive year in which over 30,000 people took their own lives. In other words, from 1997 onwards, a cumulative total of more than 360,000 people committed suicide, a figure equal to the combined population of Cork city and county. What strikes one most though is this is not necessarily big news. There seems to be an air of resigned inevitably about the topic, as if suicides were a perennial feature of life, akin to the seasons, that cannot be countered, only reluctantly accepted.

An Ageing Population: Japan, unfortunately, leads the world in this one. Currently, almost 25% of the total population is aged 65 or over. By 2020 that is expected to rise to over 30%. What this means is anyone's guess, as Japan is boldly stepping (or should that be shuffling) into a type of society hitherto unknown in the modern era. Complicating matters is...

The declining birthrate. Not enough babies. At the moment the rate is 1.28. This is projected to decline to 1.22 by 2020. This is going to have all sorts of repercussions, economically, socially and politically. The last point in particular, I think, is often overlooked. Older people tend to vote more than the young, and this in turn has the effect of politicians, in an attempt to seek votes, pander to this constituency. This effect is going to be magnified in Japan, and the ever shrinking supply of public funds will, inevitably, be directed by politicians to those who elect them - pensioners - rather than those who arguably need them most - young people trying to find work, marry, start families, raise children, etc.

This can, in turn, be seen in the declining marriage rate. By 2020 it is estimated that 20% of men then aged 50 will be unmarried. The emphasis here is not so much on men, but on the women who don't want to marry them. They don't because these poor, dowdy bachelors are economically unviable as prospective spouses - they don't have the jobs to be husbands or fathers.

And so the demographic spiral steepens and deepens. There is a partial solution to all this, although one that Japan is very reluctant to examine, namely immigration. But that is a topic I shall have to return to at a later date.