Monday 23 March 2020

Hokkaido and the Coronavirus, part 5

It would seem, from the number of page views, that my insightful explanation of Japanese work culture isn't particularly popular.
Philistines.
No, panic appeals. My posts on the coronavirus have by far and away the most views. So, loathe as I am to pander to people's acrid taste for the sensational, I must nevertheless abide by that journalistic axiom to give the reading public what they want.
So, here it is, another series of observations on the virus and its pernicious effect on life here in Hokkaido.
Let's begin with some comparative facts and figures comparing and contrasting Hokkaido and Ireland. Hokkaido has a total area of 83,424 square kilometers and has a population of 5,268,166 people. Sapporo is the largest city on the island with a population of 1,969,793. The island of Ireland has (including Northern Ireland) an area of 84,421 square kilometers and a combined population of 6,806,900 people. Dublin has a population of 1,273,069.
As of yesterday, March 22nd, Hokkaido had a cumulative total of 162 confirmed cases, with 6 fatalities.
In Ireland, the respective figures are 906 and 4.
Hokkaido recorded its first case on January 28th, in Ireland it was a month later on February 29th.
Sooooo, what can we conclude.
Firstly, I think that the number of confirmed cases in Hokkaido misrepresents the number of people with the virus. Japan has not been particularly aggressive with their testing and the paranoid, Alan J. Pakula fan in me suspects that this is a deliberate policy on the part of the government. They are trying to strike a very difficult balance between health concerns and economic interests. On Thursday, the 3 week state of emergency called by the Hokakido prefectural governor came to an end and wasn't renewed. This was despite the continuing uptick of cases on the island. The principal reason behind this wasn't that the emergency measures - chief among them school closures and people voluntary staying at home - were ineffective, but rather, from an economic point of view, they were proving to be overly effective.
Tourism (along with agriculture) is the main driver of the island's economy. Once the state of emergency came into effect, it basically fell of a cliff. Hotel reservations were cancelled by the thousands, restaurants, bars, cafes closed, tour bus companies went bankrupt, and a large swathe of part-time or contract staff suddenly found themselves without a job. In the face of all this, the governor declined to renew the state of emergency while at the same time calling on people to 'take care' when going out.
This, I feel, has bred a dangerous sense of complacency; the subjective (and scientifically unproven) feeling that perhaps the worst is behind us and we can begin to move on. Today the ministry of education announced that under certain conditions, schools would reopen again in April at the start of the new academic year. Meanwhile, the national figures for the spread of the virus are now increasing by 40 to 50 cases daily, with more and more cases cropping up in the three large urban centres of Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya.
And, adding to the rather surreal, head-scratching situation we find ourselves in, the Olympic flame has arrived in Japan and has begun its journey around the country. Given that the Olympics themselves seem set to be postponed by year (if not two), it will be a long slow journey. Better hope the flame doesn't go out entirely.


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